0
Original Research: Critical Care |

Would Triage Predictors Perform Better Than First-Come, First-Served in Pandemic Ventilator Allocation?Pandemic Triage Predictor Performance

Robert K. Kanter, MD
Author and Funding Information

From the Department of Pediatric Critical Care Medicine, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse; and the National Center for Disaster Preparedness, Columbia University, New York, NY.

CORRESPONDENCE TO: Robert K. Kanter, MD, Pediatric Critical Care Medicine, 750 E Adams St, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY 13210; e-mail: kanterr@upstate.edu


FUNDING/SUPPORT: The author has reported to CHEST that no funding was received for this study.

Reproduction of this article is prohibited without written permission from the American College of Chest Physicians. See online for more details.


Chest. 2015;147(1):102-108. doi:10.1378/chest.14-0564
Text Size: A A A
Published online

BACKGROUND:  In a pandemic, needs for ventilators might overwhelm the limited supply. Outcome predictors have been proposed to guide ventilator triage allocation decisions. However, pandemic triage predictors have not been validated. This quantitative simulation study evaluated outcomes resulting from allocation strategies varying in their performance for selecting short-stay survivors as favorable candidates for ventilators.

METHODS:  A quantitative simulation modeled a pandemic surge. Postulated numbers of potential daily admissions presented randomly from a specified population, with a limited number of available ventilators. Patients were triaged to ventilator care vs palliation or turned away to palliation if no ventilator was available. Simulated triage was conducted according to a set of hypothetical triage tools varying in sensitivity and specificity to select favorable ventilator candidates vs first-come, first-served allocation. Death was assumed for palliation. Survival or death was counted for patients who were ventilated according to the specified characteristic of each randomly selected patient.

RESULTS:  Triage predictors with intermediate-quality performance resulted in a median daily mortality of 80%, similar to first-come, first-served allocation. A poor-quality predictor resulted in a worse mortality of 90%. Only a high-quality predictor (sensitivity 90%, specificity 90%) resulted in a substantially lower 60% mortality.

CONCLUSIONS:  Performance of unvalidated pandemic ventilator triage predictors is unknown and possibly inferior to first-come, first-served allocation. Poor performance of unvalidated predictors proposed for triage would represent an inadequate plan for stewarding scarce resources and would deprive some patients of fair access to a ventilator, thus falling short of sound ethical foundations.

Figures in this Article

Sign In to Access Full Content

MEMBER & INDIVIDUAL SUBSCRIBER

Want Access?

NEW TO CHEST?

Become a CHEST member and receive a FREE subscription as a benefit of membership.

Individuals can purchase this article on ScienceDirect.

Individuals can purchase a subscription to the journal.

Individuals can purchase a subscription to the journal or buy individual articles.

Learn more about membership or Purchase a Full Subscription.

INSTITUTIONAL ACCESS

Institutional access is now available through ScienceDirect and can be purchased at myelsevier.com.

Sign In to Access Full Content

MEMBER & INDIVIDUAL SUBSCRIBER

Want Access?

NEW TO CHEST?

Become a CHEST member and receive a FREE subscription as a benefit of membership.

Individuals can purchase this article on ScienceDirect.

Individuals can purchase a subscription to the journal.

Individuals can purchase a subscription to the journal or buy individual articles.

Learn more about membership or Purchase a Full Subscription.

INSTITUTIONAL ACCESS

Institutional access is now available through ScienceDirect and can be purchased at myelsevier.com.

Figures

Tables

References

NOTE:
Citing articles are presented as examples only. In non-demo SCM6 implementation, integration with CrossRef’s "Cited By" API will populate this tab (http://www.crossref.org/citedby.html).

Some tools below are only available to our subscribers or users with an online account.

Sign In to Access Full Content

MEMBER & INDIVIDUAL SUBSCRIBER

Want Access?

NEW TO CHEST?

Become a CHEST member and receive a FREE subscription as a benefit of membership.

Individuals can purchase this article on ScienceDirect.

Individuals can purchase a subscription to the journal.

Individuals can purchase a subscription to the journal or buy individual articles.

Learn more about membership or Purchase a Full Subscription.

INSTITUTIONAL ACCESS

Institutional access is now available through ScienceDirect and can be purchased at myelsevier.com.

Related Content

Customize your page view by dragging & repositioning the boxes below.

Find Similar Articles
CHEST Journal Articles
PubMed Articles
  • CHEST Journal
    Print ISSN: 0012-3692
    Online ISSN: 1931-3543