Study objectives: To develop and prospectively validate models of independent predictors of candidemia and candidemia-related death in cardiothoracic ICU (CICU) patients.
Design: (1) An initial, prospective, one-center, case-control, independent predictor-model determining study; and (2) a prospective, two-center, model-validation study.
Setting: The initial study was performed at the 14-bed CICU of the Onassis Cardiac Surgery Center, Athens, Greece; the model-validation study was performed at the Onassis Cardiac Surgery Center CICU and the 12-bed CICU of Henry Dunant General Hospital, Athens, Greece.
Patients: In the initial study, 4,312 patients admitted to the Onassis Center CICU between March 1997 and October 1999 were considered for enrollment; 30 candidemic and 120 control patients (case/control ratio, 1/4) matched according to potential confounders were ultimately enrolled. In the model-validation study, 2,087 patients admitted to the Onassis and Henry Dunant CICUs between November 1999 and May 2002 were prospectively enrolled.
Measurements and results: Models of predictors of candidemia and associated death were constructed with stepwise logistic regression and subsequently validated. Independent candidemia predictors were ongoing invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) ≥ 10 days, hospital-acquired bacterial infection and/or bacteremia, cardiopulmonary bypass duration > 120 min, and diabetes mellitus. Model performance was as follows: sensitivity, 53.3%/57.9%; specificity, 100%/100%; positive predictive value (PPV), 100%/100%; negative predictive value (NPV), 88.9%/99.6%; and accuracy, 90.1%/99.6% (initial/model-validation study values, respectively). IMV ≥ 10 days and hospital-acquired bacterial infection/bacteremia were the two strongest candidemia predictors. APACHE (acute physiology and chronic health evaluation) II score ≥ 30 at candidemia onset independently predicted candidemia-related death with 80.0%/85.7% sensitivity, 80%/75% specificity, 66.7%/66.7% PPV, 88.9%/88.9% NPV, and 80.0%/78.9% accuracy (initial/model-validation study values, respectively).
Conclusions: We provided a set of easily determinable independent predictors of the occurrence of candidemia in CICU patients. Our results provide a rationale for implementing preventive measures in the form of independent predictor control, and initiating antifungal prophylaxis in high-risk CICU patients.